Czechia vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$21.34
53.8¢ → 54¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$21.7 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $245.75 | $211.75 | -$6 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 53.9¢ | $88.67 | $90.69 | +$2.02 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53.9¢ | $54.72 | $54.85 | +$0.13 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.6¢ | $33.94 | $35.84 | +$1.89 | |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $87.9 | $89.56 | +$1.66 | 59% 3470-2365 (5835) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $83.21 | $84.78 | +$1.57 | 58% 3202-2297 (5499) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $79.5 | $81 | +$1.5 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $71.04 | $72.38 | +$1.34 | 20% 92-378 (470) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $64.47 | $45.39 | -$0.43 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Invested
$1,818.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$21.7
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$245.75
Value
$211.75
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$88.67
Value
$90.69
PnL
+$2.02
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.9
Value
$89.56
PnL
+$1.66
Record
59%
3470-2365 (5835)
Invested
$83.21
Value
$84.78
PnL
+$1.57
Record
58%
3202-2297 (5499)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$79.5
Value
$81
PnL
+$1.5
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$71.04
Value
$72.38
PnL
+$1.34
Record
20%
92-378 (470)
Invested
$64.47
Value
$45.39
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.