Will Czechia win on 2026-11-12?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 94¢ · $584 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$584.26
-$29.29
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $316.41 | $316.23 | -$0.18 | 48% 927-1003 (1930) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $268.68 | $236.95 | -$31.73 | 50% 1423-1425 (2848) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $21.42 | $21.42 | +$0 | 31% 176-393 (569) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $5.54 | $8.31 | +$2.77 | — |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.05 | $0.9 | -$0.15 | 38% 209-341 (550) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.45 | $0.45 | +$0 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
Invested
$316.41
Value
$316.23
PnL
-$0.18
Record
48%
927-1003 (1930)
Invested
$268.68
Value
$236.95
PnL
-$31.73
Record
50%
1423-1425 (2848)
Invested
$21.42
Value
$21.42
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
176-393 (569)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$8.31
PnL
+$2.77
Record
—
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.15
Record
38%
209-341 (550)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.45
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.