Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Switzerland win on 2026-11-13?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 42¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$133.83
-$1.54
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $64.77 | $63.23 | -$1.54 | 37% 191-330 (521) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $38.35 | $38.35 | -$0 | 61% 894-573 (1467) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $22.83 | $22.83 | +$0 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $3.65 | $3.65 | +$0 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $3.47 | $3.47 | +$0 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0 | 53% 323-288 (611) |
Invested
$64.77
Value
$63.23
PnL
-$1.54
Record
37%
191-330 (521)
Invested
$38.35
Value
$38.35
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
894-573 (1467)
Invested
$22.83
Value
$22.83
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$3.47
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
323-288 (611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.