U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
5
No 60%
$4.9K
$2.9K
38.2¢ → 91.5¢
+139% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 92%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
1751h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 21¢ | $751.27 | $3.4K | +$2.6K | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 Basquetipster | Noavg 78¢ | $779.99 | $904.99 | +$135 | 68% 1674-770 (2444) |
KR Krass | Noavg 73.9¢ | $512.19 | $627.54 | +$118.81 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $10.13 | $5.66 | -$4.47 | 67% 209-101 (310) |
 aenews2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $4.04 | $2.02 | -$2.02 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$751.27
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
BasquetipsterInvested
$779.99
Value
$904.99
PnL
+$135
Record
68%
1674-770 (2444)
Invested
$512.19
Value
$627.54
PnL
+$118.81
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100Invested
$10.13
Value
$5.66
PnL
-$4.47
Record
67%
209-101 (310)
aenews2CTR<$100Invested
$4.04
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$2.02
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.