Consensus PnL $2.4M · win rate 61% (1117–726, n=1843) · PM monthly #117 · holds 61 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.4M
Record
1117W / 726L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1843 settled
Batting Avg
59.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1106
Source
PM monthly #117 + pinned
Trades
106,725
Markets
3,230
Volume
$142.5M
Top consensus positions
61 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 61 on the consensus side (34%)- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes $68K · now 45¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (29% of 19)
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $30K · now 12¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes $24K · now 33¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (75% of 10)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $20K · now 20¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $14K · now 90¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (66% of 41)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 27¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (63% of 31)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes $11K · now 12¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes $11K · now 45¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
Specialties
1,945 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 62¢- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 71% of 344 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 67% of 286 · avg entry 63¢
ROI 0%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 72% of 188 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 67% of 49 at an average 70¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 9% of 596)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 53% of 112)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 68% of 143)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 97% of 1094)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.