Consensus PnL $69K · win rate 85% (1236–224, n=1460) · was PM monthly #851 · holds 52 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$69.3K
Record
1236W / 224L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 1460 settled
Batting Avg
70.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#338
Source
PM monthly #851 + pinned
Trades
42,885
Markets
2,476
Volume
$4.2M
Top consensus positions
52 in listed consensus markets · 46 of 52 on the consensus side (88%)- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $7.1K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $6.3K · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $5.7K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $4.8K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $4.2K · now 73¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (76% of 29)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $4.2K · now 70¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $4.2K · now 44¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No $3.6K · now 82¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
Specialties
1,825 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 79¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 80% of 564 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 84% of 315 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +3%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 82% of 201 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 66% of 70 at an average 71¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 9% of 243)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 49% of 87)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 56% of 108)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 97% of 1387)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.