US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $18K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$17.7K
$1.2K
90.1¢ → 97¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $11.2K | $12.3K | +$1.0K | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $3.7K | $3.9K | +$151.17 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 94.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$34.29 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Donkov | Noavg 90.1¢ | $376.05 | $388.04 | +$11.99 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $25.49 | $27.67 | +$2.19 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$11,238.05
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
elmcap2Invested
$3,709.64
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$151.17
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$1,012.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$34.29
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
DonkovInvested
$376.05
Value
$388.04
PnL
+$11.99
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$25.49
Value
$27.67
PnL
+$2.19
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.