Consensus PnL $63K · win rate 70% (762–325, n=1087) · hand-picked wallet · holds 54 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$63.1K
Record
762W / 325L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 1087 settled
Batting Avg
75.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#740
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
90,649
Markets
1,562
Volume
$7.1M
Top consensus positions
54 in listed consensus markets · 49 of 54 on the consensus side (91%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $1.2K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No $977 · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No $516 · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No $416 · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- US takes Panama Canal before 2027?No $388 · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $327 · now 28¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (67% of 32)
- Will Trump resign before 2027?No $260 · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $128 · now 16¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,145 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 42¢- Politics
+7 pts
side won 57% of 125 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +1%
- Entertainment
+15 pts
side won 35% of 17 · avg entry 21¢
ROI −1%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 59% of 243 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 46% of 173 at an average 47¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 8% of 574)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 48% of 109)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 68% of 103)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 96% of 359)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.