US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 80¢ · $11K held · ends Dec 31

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$47.51

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 79.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares12,365

Combined PnL+$32.41

No2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares7,000

Combined PnL+$15.1

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rainbowlilies	Yesavg 79.8¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$20.8	— 0-3 (3)
PE petanimal	Yesavg 80¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	— 0-19 (19)
DragontreeCTR	Noavg 20¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$25	— 0-2 (2)
pIebeCTR	Noavg 21¢	$423.9	$414	-$9.9	—
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 79.8¢	$286.4	$214.16	-$1.83	— 0-10 (10)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 79.5¢	$128.88	$133.05	+$4.17	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 79.5¢	$104	$104.71	+$0.72
└ No leg	Noavg 18¢	$24.88	$28.34	+$3.46
classified	Yesavg 78.4¢	$482.17	$120.77	+$13.34	65% 578-308 (886)
Lolakis<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$3.55	$3.64	+$0.09	0% 0-31 (31)

rainbowlilies

Yes

Invested

$7,561.69

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$20.8

Record

—

0-3 (3)

petanimal

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-19 (19)

DragontreeCTR

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$25

Record

—

0-2 (2)

pIebeCTR

Invested

$423.9

Value

$414

PnL

-$9.9

Record

—

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$286.4

Value

$214.16

PnL

-$1.83

Record

—

0-10 (10)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$128.88

Value

$133.05

PnL

+$4.17

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

Both legs:

Invested

$482.17

Value

$120.77

PnL

+$13.34

Record

65%

578-308 (886)

Lolakis<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.64

PnL

+$0.09

Record

0-31 (31)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.5%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.