Consensus PnL $141K · win rate 56% (798–627, n=1425) · hand-picked wallet · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$140.7K
Record
798W / 627L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 1425 settled
Batting Avg
69.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1384
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
29,004
Markets
2,425
Volume
$5.4M
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 32 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $14K · now 80¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $9.3K · now 66¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes $3.0K · now 55¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes $2.2K · now 64¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (50% of 13)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes $1.8K · now 82¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $1.6K · now 74¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (53% of 31)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes $602 · now 21¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No $578 · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
Specialties
1,463 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 52¢- Mentions
+8 pts
side won 66% of 648 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +12%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 26% of 77 · avg entry 24¢
ROI −1%
- NBA
+5 pts
side won 36% of 28 · avg entry 31¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 52% of 48 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 34%(won 10% of 498)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 46% of 197)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 63% of 191)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 95% of 577)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.