Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 79¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$146.92
$0.5
78.5¢ → 78.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $78 | $78.5 | +$0.5 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $36.21 | $36.21 | -$0 | 24% 200-638 (838) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $21 | $21 | +$0 | 24% 204-633 (837) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $10.16 | $10.16 | +$0 | 24% 201-627 (828) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $1.05 | +$0 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
Invested
$78
Value
$78.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$36.21
Value
$36.21
PnL
-$0
Record
24%
200-638 (838)
Invested
$21
Value
$21
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
204-633 (837)
Invested
$10.16
Value
$10.16
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
201-627 (828)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.