Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AS Roma vs. Servette FC Chênois Féminin: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 43¢ · $513 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$512.84
$134.85
44.9¢ → 43¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $271.91 | $399.15 | +$127.24 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.1¢ | $61.42 | $64 | +$2.58 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 34.8¢ | $18.7 | $24.7 | +$6 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $20.27 | $19.61 | -$0.66 | 50% 240-242 (482) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $5.68 | $5.38 | -$0.3 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
Invested
$271.91
Value
$399.15
PnL
+$127.24
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
Invested
$61.42
Value
$64
PnL
+$2.58
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$18.7
Value
$24.7
PnL
+$6
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$20.27
Value
$19.61
PnL
-$0.66
Record
50%
240-242 (482)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$5.38
PnL
-$0.3
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.