AS Roma vs. Servette FC Chênois Féminin: O/U 0.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$21.98

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,300

Combined PnL+$22.61

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.9

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$0.64

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 95.1¢	$912.96	$944.16	+$31.2	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 98.2¢	$335.71	$327.13	-$8.59	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$3.12	$2.57	-$0.55	25% 219-662 (881)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 1.8¢	$1.18	$1.08	-$0.1	25% 221-650 (871)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 1.6¢	$0.24	$0.25	+$0.01	44% 79-102 (181)

RN1

Over

Invested

$912.96

Value

$944.16

PnL

+$31.2

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$335.71

Value

$327.13

PnL

-$8.59

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.12

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.55

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.1

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.01

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.