FC Internazionale Milano vs. Manchester City WFC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.8K
-$206.28
62.6¢ → 59.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 65.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$236.02 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 54.6¢ | $438.32 | $423.83 | -$14.5 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $29.26 | $72.34 | +$43.08 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $5.28 | $5.86 | +$0.58 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $5.27 | $5.85 | +$0.58 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
RN1Invested
$1,565.75
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$236.02
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
Invested
$438.32
Value
$423.83
PnL
-$14.5
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
Invested
$29.26
Value
$72.34
PnL
+$43.08
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$0.58
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.85
PnL
+$0.58
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.