Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 10

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,469

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over1 trader

Total Value$335.49

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$3.19

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 39.3¢	$2.2K	$4.2K	+$2.1K	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.3¢	$1.2K	$3.0K	+$1.8K
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.9¢	$992.08	$1.3K	+$283.49
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 61¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$736.33	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
RN1CTR	Underavg 5¢	$45.53	$609.01	+$563.48	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$332.3	$335.49	+$3.19	79% 22-6 (28)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$5	$6.18	+$1.18	24% 103-322 (425)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,166.62

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Over$1,174.5339.3¢+$1.8K

Under$992.0852.9¢+$283.49

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,993.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$736.33

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$45.53

Value

$609.01

PnL

+$563.48

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$332.3

Value

$335.49

PnL

+$3.19

Record

79%

22-6 (28)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$1.18

Record

24%

103-322 (425)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.