Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 48¢ · $592 held · ended Nov 10

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$591.96

Combined PnL

$4.36

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$41.99

Total Shares181

Combined PnL+$4.17

Over2 traders

Total Value$11.1

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.19

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 76.2¢	$544.91	$538.87	-$6.03	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 76.2¢	$397.05	$398.74	+$1.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.8¢	$147.86	$140.14	-$7.72
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 19.4¢	$30.93	$31.04	+$0.11	25% 214-643 (857)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 31.5¢	$6.9	$10.95	+$4.05	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 78¢	$7	$7.07	+$0.07	47% 148-167 (315)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 78¢	$3.9	$4.03	+$0.13	31% 170-383 (553)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$544.91

Value

$538.87

PnL

-$6.03

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Both legs:

Over$397.0576.2¢+$1.69

Under$147.8624.8¢-$7.72

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.93

Value

$31.04

PnL

+$0.11

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$10.95

PnL

+$4.05

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.13

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.