Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: O/U 0.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 97¢ · $617 held · ends Nov 10

Over97¢Under3¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$616.64

Combined PnL

-$1.34

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 97.2¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$599.73

Total Shares613

Combined PnL+$0.01

Under3 traders

Total Value$16.92

Total Shares591

Combined PnL-$1.35

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 97.1¢	$441.08	$441.54	+$0.45	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 97¢	$135.96	$135.6	-$0.36	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 97¢	$22.67	$22.59	-$0.08	29% 154-375 (529)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$8.4	$7.98	-$0.42	24% 204-633 (837)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 3.5¢	$5.51	$4.57	-$0.94	24% 200-638 (838)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 2.8¢	$4.36	$4.37	+$0.01	24% 200-618 (818)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$441.08

Value

$441.54

PnL

+$0.45

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$135.96

Value

$135.6

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$22.67

Value

$22.59

PnL

-$0.08

Record

29%

154-375 (529)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.4

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$0.42

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.51

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$0.94

Record

24%

200-638 (838)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.36

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.01

Record

24%

200-618 (818)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.