Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FK Austria Wien leading at halftime?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 29¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 11

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$74.33

Combined PnL

$44.77

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$70.19

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$45.55

No1 trader

Total Value$4.14

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.78

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$18.27	$39.1	+$20.83	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$3.16	$24.51	+$21.34	13% 16-109 (125)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.14	$4.73	+$2.59	31% 174-392 (566)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.92	$4.14	-$0.78	47% 148-167 (315)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.08	$1.86	+$0.78	38% 209-339 (548)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.27

Value

$39.1

PnL

+$20.83

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.16

Value

$24.51

PnL

+$21.34

Record

13%

16-109 (125)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$2.59

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$0.78

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$0.78

Record

38%

209-339 (548)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.