Will Broendby IF win on 2026-11-11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 60¢ · $961 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$961.07
$4.74
58.7¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 58.4¢ | $581.99 | $567.59 | +$8.49 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 59.8¢ | $175.96 | $175.01 | -$0.95 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $158.63 | $155.16 | -$3.47 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $35.28 | $34.75 | -$0.53 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $24.6 | $25.56 | +$0.96 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $3 | +$0.25 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
Invested
$581.99
Value
$567.59
PnL
+$8.49
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$175.96
Value
$175.01
PnL
-$0.95
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$158.63
Value
$155.16
PnL
-$3.47
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$35.28
Value
$34.75
PnL
-$0.53
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$24.6
Value
$25.56
PnL
+$0.96
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$3
PnL
+$0.25
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.