Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Broendby IF 1 - 0 Rosenborg BK Kvinner?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $44 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$44.28
$1.99
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $22.64 | $23.77 | +$1.13 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9.57 | $10.05 | +$0.48 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4 | $4.2 | +$0.2 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $3.01 | $3.16 | +$0.15 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2.57 | $2.57 | +$0 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.5 | $0.53 | +$0.03 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
Invested
$22.64
Value
$23.77
PnL
+$1.13
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$9.57
Value
$10.05
PnL
+$0.48
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$3.01
Value
$3.16
PnL
+$0.15
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
Invested
$2.57
Value
$2.57
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0.03
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.