Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Real Sociedad San Sebastian win on 2026-11-11?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 38¢ · $389 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$389.25
-$3.33
38.9¢ → 37.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 61.1¢ | $161.1 | $166.36 | +$5.26 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.1¢ | $129.82 | $132.88 | +$3.06 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 35¢ | $31.28 | $33.49 | +$2.2 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $127.72 | $124.45 | -$3.27 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $83.87 | $83.87 | +$0 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $8.59 | $8.52 | -$0.07 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $4.29 | $4.15 | -$0.14 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $1.9 | +$0.15 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
Invested
$161.1
Value
$166.36
PnL
+$5.26
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.72
Value
$124.45
PnL
-$3.27
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$83.87
Value
$83.87
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$8.59
Value
$8.52
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.15
PnL
-$0.14
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.