Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-11-11?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 93¢ · $291 held · ends Nov 11

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$290.61

Combined PnL

$6.36

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 92.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$290.61

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$6.36

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 88.7¢	$161.49	$166.43	+$4.93	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 91.7¢	$80.13	$80.42	+$0.29	45% 263-319 (582)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$22.77	$23.28	+$0.51	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$13.23	$13.83	+$0.6	31% 385-869 (1254)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$5.4	$5.4	+$0	37% 346-578 (924)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$1.24	$1.27	+$0.03	31% 380-851 (1231)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$161.49

Value

$166.43

PnL

+$4.93

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.13

Value

$80.42

PnL

+$0.29

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.77

Value

$23.28

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.23

Value

$13.83

PnL

+$0.6

Record

31%

385-869 (1254)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.03

Record

31%

380-851 (1231)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.