Will Spartak Myjava win on 2026-11-11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$2.0K
-$2.28
97.5¢ → 97.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 98¢ | $848.92 | $847.19 | -$1.73 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.2¢ | $369.63 | $371.83 | +$2.2 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.2¢ | $355.47 | $347.75 | -$5.78 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97¢ | $296.81 | $299.32 | +$2.51 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.1¢ | $107.62 | $108.12 | +$0.5 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $19.7 | $19.73 | +$0.03 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
Invested
$848.92
Value
$847.19
PnL
-$1.73
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$369.63
Value
$371.83
PnL
+$2.2
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$355.47
Value
$347.75
PnL
-$5.78
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$296.81
Value
$299.32
PnL
+$2.51
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$107.62
Value
$108.12
PnL
+$0.5
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$19.73
PnL
+$0.03
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.