Spread: Hammarby IF (-2.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hammarby IF (40%) · Hammarby IF at 62¢ · $514 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Hammarby IF
5
Hammarby IF 40%
$513.7
$9.21
59.1¢ → 61.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralHammarby IF at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Hammarby IF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Hammarby IFavg 59.3¢ | $329.91 | $342.36 | +$12.45 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Spartak Myjavaavg 39¢ | $93.5 | $92.31 | -$1.2 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Spartak Myjavaavg 42¢ | $38.67 | $35.91 | -$2.76 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Hammarby IFavg 57¢ | $26.02 | $27.54 | +$1.52 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Spartak Myjavaavg 41¢ | $16.38 | $15.58 | -$0.8 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
Invested
$329.91
Value
$342.36
PnL
+$12.45
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$93.5
Value
$92.31
PnL
-$1.2
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$38.67
Value
$35.91
PnL
-$2.76
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$26.02
Value
$27.54
PnL
+$1.52
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$16.38
Value
$15.58
PnL
-$0.8
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.