Hammarby IF vs. Spartak Myjava: O/U 5.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 75¢ · $294 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$294.33
$1.61
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 75.2¢ | $220.33 | $219.65 | -$0.68 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 24.4¢ | $26.17 | $27.36 | +$1.19 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $19.36 | $19.75 | +$0.39 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $14.22 | $14.5 | +$0.28 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 24.4¢ | $7 | $7.32 | +$0.32 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $5.64 | $5.75 | +$0.11 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
Invested
$220.33
Value
$219.65
PnL
-$0.68
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$26.17
Value
$27.36
PnL
+$1.19
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$19.36
Value
$19.75
PnL
+$0.39
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$14.5
PnL
+$0.28
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$7
Value
$7.32
PnL
+$0.32
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.11
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.