Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 86¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$199.52
-$1.48
83¢ → 85.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 83¢ | $114.73 | $114.73 | +$0 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $30.6 | $30.6 | -$0 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $24.85 | $25.3 | +$0.45 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $13.09 | $13.09 | -$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $14.45 | $12.7 | -$1.75 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.28 | $3.1 | -$0.18 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
Invested
$114.73
Value
$114.73
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$30.6
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$24.85
Value
$25.3
PnL
+$0.45
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$13.09
Value
$13.09
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$12.7
PnL
-$1.75
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.18
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.