Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 94¢ · $17K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$16.5K
$1.9K
61¢ → 93.8¢
+54% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vacoolaaa | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $7.9K | $13.2K | +$5.3K | 68% 124-59 (183) |
MU muddyrc | Yesavg 80.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$214.17 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
 manekineko | Yesavg 96.4¢ | $965.99 | $939.8 | -$26.19 | 84% 365-71 (436) |
TR tradexplorerCTR | Noavg 40.7¢ | $4.4K | $681.39 | $-3.7K | 60% 291-194 (485) |
 TimeTraveler | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $49.05 | $147.16 | +$98.11 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
vacoolaaaInvested
$7,928.71
Value
$13.2K
PnL
+$5.3K
Record
68%
124-59 (183)
Invested
$1,336.21
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$214.17
Record
51%
230-218 (448)
manekinekoInvested
$965.99
Value
$939.8
PnL
-$26.19
Record
84%
365-71 (436)
Invested
$4,359.79
Value
$681.39
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
60%
291-194 (485)
TimeTravelerInvested
$49.05
Value
$147.16
PnL
+$98.11
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.