Consensus PnL -$52K · win rate 68% (92–44, n=136) · hand-picked wallet · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-52.2K
Record
92W / 44L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 136 settled
Batting Avg
74.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#830
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
5,128
Markets
223
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 18 on the consensus side (89%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $106K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $69K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes $13K · now 94¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $12K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $8.7K · now 87¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $4.9K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $1.9K · now 94¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
187 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 68¢- Crypto
+6 pts
side won 77% of 62 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +5%
- Esports
+5 pts
side won 59% of 32 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 57% of 60 at an average 73¢ entry (−16 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 12% of 25)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 43% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 50% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 57%(won 88% of 107)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.