Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 68¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.6K
-$271.31
70.6¢ → 68¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
677h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b | Yesavg 85.1¢ | $3.2K | $2.6K | -$644.66 | 72% 71-28 (99) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $563.71 | $912.5 | +$348.79 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 44.8¢ | $83.43 | $95.98 | +$12.55 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.1¢ | $14.28 | $22.43 | +$8.16 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $2 | $5.86 | +$3.86 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0bInvested
$3,210.75
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$644.66
Record
72%
71-28 (99)
Invested
$563.71
Value
$912.5
PnL
+$348.79
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
2B9S<$100Invested
$83.43
Value
$95.98
PnL
+$12.55
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$22.43
PnL
+$8.16
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Invested
$2
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$3.86
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.