Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $198 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$198

Combined PnL

-$29.35

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 99.9¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$198

Total Shares198

Combined PnL+$11.97

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3

Combined PnL-$41.32

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (1 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 94¢	$173.9	$184.72	+$10.82	88% 2229-292 (2521)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$9.22	$9.67	+$0.44	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$2.91	$3.61	+$0.71	39% 965-1508 (2473)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$130.03	$0	-$41.19	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.14	$0	-$0.14	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$173.9

Value

$184.72

PnL

+$10.82

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$9.22

Value

$9.67

PnL

+$0.44

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$2.91

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.71

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$130.03

Value

PnL

-$41.19

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

PnL

-$0.14

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (1 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.