Consensus PnL -$33K · win rate 80% (7883–1937, n=9820) · PM monthly #459 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-32.6K
Record
7883W / 1937L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 9820 settled
Batting Avg
28.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#423
Source
PM monthly #459
Trades
15,951
Markets
15,297
Volume
$6.3M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 16 on the consensus side (94%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $8.5K · now 19¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $29 · now 38¢with the consensus (78% of 39)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $14 · now 21¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $9 · now 2¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $8 · now 1¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $5 · now 72¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $3 · now 3¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $3 · now 4¢with the consensus (95% of 22)
Specialties
9,074 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 89¢- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 97% of 2000 · avg entry 93¢
ROI 0%
- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 90% of 1020 · avg entry 85¢
ROI −2%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 98% of 386 · avg entry 94¢
ROI −19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 28% of 365)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 45% of 280)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 69% of 457)
- 70¢ and up: 88%(won 99% of 7972)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.