Consensus PnL $605K · win rate 34% (779–1517, n=2296) · hand-picked wallet · holds 192 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$604.5K
Record
779W / 1517L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 2296 settled
Batting Avg
41.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2158
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
2,909,440
Markets
28,477
Volume
$170.7M
Top consensus positions
192 in listed consensus markets · 118 of 192 on the consensus side (61%)- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $465K · now 84¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (13% of 32)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $114K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $53K · now 96¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 97¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $1.1K · now 72¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $522 · now 23¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No $411 · now 93¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (69% of 29)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $336 · now 96¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
Specialties
12,945 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 89¢- Esports
+29 pts
side won 98% of 357 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +23%
- Weather
+8 pts
side won 94% of 515 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +7%
- Economy
+7 pts
side won 97% of 532 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 40% of 654)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 80% of 327)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 88% of 456)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 99% of 11508)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.