Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $142 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$141.69
-$14.4
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 90.3¢ | $127.37 | $140.99 | +$13.61 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.04 | $0.04 | -$10.59 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
NO NoMoreMisterCTR | Yes | $130.03 | $0 | -$17.28 | 76% 8934-2819 (11753) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.14 | $0 | -$0.14 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$127.37
Value
$140.99
PnL
+$13.61
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$10.59
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$130.03
Value
$0
PnL
-$17.28
Record
76%
8934-2819 (11753)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.14
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.