Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 33¢ · $42 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$42.41

Combined PnL

-$35.17

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$37.11

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$35.46

No1 trader

Total Value$5.31

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$0.29

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 52.7¢	$53.54	$33.03	-$20.52	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$5.02	$5.31	+$0.29	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$3.14	$3.14	+$1.93	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$130.02	$0.62	-$17.06	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.14	$0.33	+$0.19	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.54

Value

$33.03

PnL

-$20.52

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.29

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$1.93

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$130.02

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$17.06

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.19

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.4%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$190.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

290.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.