Will a Senior or Graduate win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.6K
$329.05
77.1¢ → 89¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $1.9K | $2.3K | +$310.36 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 Hyperlong | Noavg 75¢ | $149.92 | $187 | +$30 | 47% 320-364 (684) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $24.24 | $24 | -$0.24 | 17% 1307-6523 (7830) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $11.84 | $17.3 | +$5.46 | 68% 740-356 (1096) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.93 | $10.29 | +$3.36 | 58% 15784-11478 (27262) |
 extractive-manateeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $40.4 | $5.53 | -$19.88 | 34% 660-1265 (1925) |
Invested
$1,939.65
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$310.36
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
HyperlongInvested
$149.92
Value
$187
PnL
+$30
Record
47%
320-364 (684)
Invested
$24.24
Value
$24
PnL
-$0.24
Record
17%
1307-6523 (7830)
Invested
$11.84
Value
$17.3
PnL
+$5.46
Record
68%
740-356 (1096)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$3.36
Record
58%
15784-11478 (27262)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100Invested
$40.4
Value
$5.53
PnL
-$19.88
Record
34%
660-1265 (1925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.