Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 71¢ · $432 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$432.07
-$5.3
79.9¢ → 70.5¢
-12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
191h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1CTR | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $123.63 | $155.36 | +$31.74 | 63% 446-257 (703) |
SP SpringlyFawl | Noavg 80¢ | $140.8 | $124.08 | -$16.72 | 30% 2189-5039 (7228) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $85.6 | $75.44 | -$10.17 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $68 | $59.93 | -$8.07 | 31% 1408-3193 (4601) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $19.34 | $17.26 | -$2.08 | 46% 1569-1829 (3398) |
clazzy1CTRInvested
$123.63
Value
$155.36
PnL
+$31.74
Record
63%
446-257 (703)
Invested
$140.8
Value
$124.08
PnL
-$16.72
Record
30%
2189-5039 (7228)
Invested
$85.6
Value
$75.44
PnL
-$10.17
Record
23%
178-602 (780)
Invested
$68
Value
$59.93
PnL
-$8.07
Record
31%
1408-3193 (4601)
Invested
$19.34
Value
$17.26
PnL
-$2.08
Record
46%
1569-1829 (3398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.