Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$5.4K
$1.2K
74¢ → 94.5¢
+28% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 gopfan2 | Yesavg 72.8¢ | $4.1K | $4.9K | +$1.1K | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
FL FlyingPlaty | Yesavg 90¢ | $381.36 | $400.42 | +$19.07 | 98% 982-16 (998) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Yesavg 46.5¢ | $0 | $34.56 | +$34.56 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
ME melganis<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $18.19 | $22.03 | +$3.85 | 75% 1597-541 (2138) |
EA Eatpraylove<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $12.35 | $16.21 | +$3.86 | 57% 766-585 (1351) |
gopfan2Invested
$4,135.09
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
Invested
$381.36
Value
$400.42
PnL
+$19.07
Record
98%
982-16 (998)
Invested
$0
Value
$34.56
PnL
+$34.56
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$18.19
Value
$22.03
PnL
+$3.85
Record
75%
1597-541 (2138)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$16.21
PnL
+$3.86
Record
57%
766-585 (1351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.