Consensus PnL $1.7M · win rate 56% (597–471, n=1068) · PM monthly #370 · holds 29 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.7M
Record
597W / 471L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 1068 settled
Batting Avg
66.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1386
Source
PM monthly #370 + pinned
Trades
100,414
Markets
1,945
Volume
$32.2M
Top consensus positions
29 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 29 on the consensus side (90%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $35K · now 72¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $23K · now 12¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (91% of 32)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $18K · now 74¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $17K · now 73¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (61% of 41)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $15K · now 75¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (58% of 38)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $14K · now 90¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $13K · now 74¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $12K · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
Specialties
1,204 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 58¢- College Basketball
+47 pts
side won 94% of 17 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +49%
- College Football
+46 pts
side won 93% of 14 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +45%
- NFL
+39 pts
side won 95% of 22 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 17% of 261)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 75% of 197)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 87% of 219)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 96% of 527)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.