Consensus PnL $529K · win rate 50% (411–407, n=818) · was PM monthly #576 · holds 53 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$529.3K
Record
411W / 407L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 818 settled
Batting Avg
68.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1746
Source
PM monthly #576 + pinned
Trades
142,016
Markets
1,636
Volume
$24.8M
Top consensus positions
53 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 53 on the consensus side (58%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $60K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $29K · now 72¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $21K · now 38¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (78% of 38)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $6.9K · now 23¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $4.7K · now 70¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.5K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (47% of 19)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $4.0K · now 19¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $3.0K · now 75¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (42% of 38)
Specialties
1,179 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 55¢- Politics
+10 pts
side won 70% of 98 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 68% of 430 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 42% of 118 · avg entry 39¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 15% of 39 at an average 16¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 6% of 436)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 48% of 85)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 74% of 76)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 96% of 582)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.