Will Adin Ross lose the most weight in Nozempic 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.4K
$38.41
84.4¢ → 90.8¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taemaxx | Noavg 83.9¢ | $800.93 | $858.82 | +$57.89 | — 2-1 (3) |
 Relaccsed | Noavg 86.2¢ | $330.3 | $326.62 | -$3.67 | — 4-1 (5) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 82.1¢ | $156.4 | $145.11 | -$11.28 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $18.94 | $18 | -$0.94 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $7.32 | $3.74 | -$3.58 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
Invested
$800.93
Value
$858.82
PnL
+$57.89
Record
—
2-1 (3)
RelaccsedInvested
$330.3
Value
$326.62
PnL
-$3.67
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$156.4
Value
$145.11
PnL
-$11.28
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$18.94
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.94
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$3.58
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.