Consensus PnL $40K · win rate 75% (276–92, n=368) · PM monthly #642 · holds 63 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$39.6K
Record
276W / 92L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 368 settled
Batting Avg
50.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#570
Source
PM monthly #642
Trades
1,121
Markets
1,109
Volume
$859.8K
Top consensus positions
63 in listed consensus markets · 39 of 63 on the consensus side (62%)- Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No $6.2K · now 99¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?No $4.4K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for SpaceXAI / Elon Musk by December 31?No $1.1K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $972 · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No $770 · now 70¢ · in at 69¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No $676 · now 1¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?No $670 · now 45¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?No $669 · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
Specialties
279 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 73¢- Geopolitics
+17 pts
side won 82% of 147 · avg entry 66¢
ROI 0%
- Tech
+13 pts
side won 96% of 53 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+11 pts
side won 96% of 26 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 32% of 38)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 73% of 22)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 100% of 30)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 99% of 189)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.