Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$6.4K
$-1.2K
98.1¢ → 98¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
653h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 01258787xy48487484545122 | Yesavg 98.4¢ | $4.1K | $4.0K | -$19.24 | 65% 290-159 (449) |
 StudyPrediction | Yesavg 97.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$12.11 | 53% 4589-4006 (8595) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $99.98 | $99.72 | -$0.26 | 58% 5897-4320 (10217) |
TH thoodrCTR | Noavg 74.8¢ | $1.0K | $28.74 | $-1.0K | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 JustADonkCTR | Noavg 42.7¢ | $213.5 | $10.25 | -$203.25 | 55% 900-743 (1643) |
Invested
$4,085.55
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$19.24
Record
65%
290-159 (449)
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,266.99
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$12.11
Record
53%
4589-4006 (8595)
Invested
$99.98
Value
$99.72
PnL
-$0.26
Record
58%
5897-4320 (10217)
Invested
$1,048.4
Value
$28.74
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
JustADonkCTRInvested
$213.5
Value
$10.25
PnL
-$203.25
Record
55%
900-743 (1643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.