Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$3.1K
-$21.07
61.1¢ → 61¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Late
658h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Yesavg 57.1¢ | $1.0K | $999.74 | +$68.89 | 48% 90-98 (188) |
 aenews2 | Yesavg 64¢ | $981.01 | $935.03 | -$45.98 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $650.25 | $659.2 | +$8.95 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
BI BikesAreTheBikes | Yesavg 66¢ | $582.35 | $502.94 | -$52.94 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $25.71 | $25.71 | +$0 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
Invested
$1,001
Value
$999.74
PnL
+$68.89
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
aenews2Invested
$981.01
Value
$935.03
PnL
-$45.98
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
Invested
$650.25
Value
$659.2
PnL
+$8.95
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
Invested
$582.35
Value
$502.94
PnL
-$52.94
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
2B9S<$100Invested
$25.71
Value
$25.71
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.