Consensus PnL $33K · win rate 50% (96–96, n=192) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$32.9K
Record
96W / 96L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 192 settled
Batting Avg
64.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1769
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
378
Markets
272
Volume
$201.0K
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 17 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?No $15K · now 91¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?No $14K · now 91¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?No $7.1K · now 67¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?No $5.1K · now 69¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No $4.6K · now 96¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?No $4.2K · now 80¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?No $3.7K · now 88¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $3.2K · now 90¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
Specialties
200 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 64¢- Soccer
+14 pts
side won 74% of 46 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +20%
- Geopolitics
+14 pts
side won 85% of 26 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +17%
- NHL
+20 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 42% of 12 at an average 55¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 7% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 56% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 44%(won 81% of 88)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 75% of 81)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.