Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 17¢ · $592 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$591.68
$181.16
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
684h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA Hauchn | Noavg 34.1¢ | $171.34 | $416.73 | +$245.4 | 37% 64-107 (171) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $167.84 | $68 | -$99.84 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $39.2 | $66.4 | +$27.2 | 51% 527-509 (1036) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $24.79 | $33.19 | +$8.4 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $7.35 | $7.35 | +$0 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
Invested
$171.34
Value
$416.73
PnL
+$245.4
Record
37%
64-107 (171)
Invested
$167.84
Value
$68
PnL
-$99.84
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$39.2
Value
$66.4
PnL
+$27.2
Record
51%
527-509 (1036)
Invested
$24.79
Value
$33.19
PnL
+$8.4
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.