Consensus PnL $34K · win rate 42% (282–386, n=668) · hand-picked wallet · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$34.0K
Record
282W / 386L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 668 settled
Batting Avg
61.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2066
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
15,427
Markets
1,188
Volume
$602.6K
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 26 on the consensus side (69%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.5K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No $383 · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $359 · now 46¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes $340 · now 82¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Yes $312 · now 68¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $241 · now 72¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $238 · now 85¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (64% of 12)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes $150 · now 31¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
Specialties
773 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 33¢- Finance
+13 pts
side won 56% of 78 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 40% of 143 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +2%
- Culture
+4 pts
side won 18% of 65 · avg entry 15¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 34% of 155 at an average 35¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 61%(won 7% of 471)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 38% of 53)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 80% of 66)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 97% of 183)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.