Consensus PnL $230K · win rate 23% (24–79, n=103) · PM monthly #227 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$230.4K
Record
24W / 79L
Win Rate
23.0%
of 103 settled
Batting Avg
54.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2233
Source
PM monthly #227 + pinned
Trades
29,251
Markets
210
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $103K · now 44¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $7.1K · now 45¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $4.5K · now 72¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $417 · now 83¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $305 · now 46¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $288 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
118 settled consensus markets · held side won 11% at an average entry of 12¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Hauchn's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Finance — held side won 11% of 117 at an average 12¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 87%(won 2% of 103)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 100% of 7)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.