Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.0K
-$572.73
61.1¢ → 50¢
-18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
1309h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
20 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 62.2¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$402 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 FrozenParasite | No | $749.21 | $749.21 | -$212.85 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
 StarMaster | Yesavg 50.4¢ | $488.97 | $499.83 | +$10.87 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $106.97 | $116.07 | +$9.11 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 TheKinginYellow<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $49.27 | $71.41 | +$22.14 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
Invested
$1,968.82
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$402
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$749.21
Value
$749.21
PnL
-$212.85
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
StarMasterInvested
$488.97
Value
$499.83
PnL
+$10.87
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$106.97
Value
$116.07
PnL
+$9.11
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
TheKinginYellow<$100Invested
$49.27
Value
$71.41
PnL
+$22.14
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.