Consensus PnL $10K · win rate 68% (460–217, n=677) · hand-picked wallet · holds 43 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$10.1K
Record
460W / 217L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 677 settled
Batting Avg
70.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#819
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
17,027
Markets
1,380
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
43 in listed consensus markets · 34 of 43 on the consensus side (79%)- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $830 · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- US imports Russian diesel by November 30?No $587 · now 47¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (44% of 11)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $573 · now 84¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- AI bubble burst in 2026?No $542 · now 90¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $520 · now 73¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $448 · now 95¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?No $387 · now 78¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes $319 · now 11¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,219 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 68¢- Tech
+9 pts
side won 92% of 50 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +4%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 65% of 411 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 72% of 43 · avg entry 67¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 65% of 129 at an average 72¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 11% of 138)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 36% of 118)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 63% of 321)
- 70¢ and up: 53%(won 90% of 642)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.