Consensus PnL $157K · win rate 63% (453–268, n=721) · was PM monthly #875 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$156.7K
Record
453W / 268L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 721 settled
Batting Avg
71.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1011
Source
PM monthly #875
Trades
1,409
Markets
1,020
Volume
$951.7K
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 32 on the consensus side (72%)- Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 56¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 95¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?Yes $1.1K · now 66¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?Yes $788 · now 56¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Yes $772 · now 51¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?No $749 · now 50¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?No $691 · now 93¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?Yes $644 · now 44¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
Specialties
672 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 37¢- Elections
+15 pts
side won 50% of 526 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +12%
- Economy
+14 pts
side won 54% of 50 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+24 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 50% of 14 at an average 52¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 48%(won 22% of 322)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 60% of 105)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 75% of 126)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 96% of 119)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.